ABC of 123, Indo - US (-IAEA) nuclear deal

I have to first say that I don't know the ABC of this, still it doesn't stop me from trying to form an opinion when the ruling coalition of the central government is at the brink of falling from power.



Why is this called the 123 agreement?


Section 123 of the United States Atomic Energy Act of 1954, titled "Cooperation With Other Nations", establishes an agreement for cooperation as a prerequisite for nuclear deals between the US and any other nation. Such an agreement is called a 123 Agreement.



Background:







History:


1974, India conducted nuclear test for first time in Pokhran. Although the ripples of energy was well controlled, the political energy that followed affected the planet forever. India's nuclear test demonstarted that non-weapon nuclear technology could be readily turned to weapon development, this caused the nuclear super-powers to get together and create NSG-Nuclear Suppliers Group. Along with USSR, USA, China, France and UK, Japan and Canada were a part of the group/cartel. They provided guidelines to IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency-1957) for the export/import of nuclear technology to non-nuclear nations. Over years many nations have become members of NSG.



India's stance so far:


Since 1974, for decades India has managed and overcome pressure from the nuclear super powers to succumb to their NPT regime. India has been saying that it is unfair for the 'haves' to stop the 'have-nots' from acquiring nuclear power. It will be fair only if all work towards a complete non-nuclear (weapons) world.



Current situation:


India growing at a rate of about 8% per annum is in dire need of better infrastructure. Electricity, the basic need of industries is very much in short. With the soaring oil prices and speculated fossil fuel dry-up, it is time to think of a better energy source that is also not adding to global warming. The world says that as of now nuclear is the way to go. Though non-convetional and renewable energy is consdered the safest they are seen to be too expensive.

The agreement:


At a very high level as I understand as per the IAEA agreement India will have to declare and enlist the civilian nuclear installations it wants to be brought under the agreement. These installations will then be closely monitored for all the inputs that goes into it like the fuel and equipments being imported, consumed, disposed, transferred, etc. India is obliged to keep an account of all these and report back periodically. Nothing could move from the enlisted installations to a non-listed installation without IAEA's approval. Once this is agreed, the 45 and odd IAEA member countries and US's friends will be ready to ensure a constant supply of fuel for the listed installations and technology as needed.

The doubt:

India recently submitted a draft of the safeguard agreement (http://www.armscontrol.org/pdf/20080709_India_safeguards.pdf) to IAEA and its member's for review. India has raised the question of what if once the deal is done and there is for some reason no constant supply of fuel as agreed? A particular clause added by India has raised debate by members that it is unclear of what India means by saying "India may take corrective measures to ensure uninterrupted operation of its civilian nuclear reactors in the event of disruption of foreign fuel supplies."

IAEA says that the agreement must not be approached with doubt but with 'trust' which I think is quite applicable to IAEA on India too.

Questions:

Though this is a question to be clarified before going ahead the agreement is seen to still have many loose ends that could be a trap into which India would fall if we are not clear about it. The questions being raised by the opposition (or the Left party who are opposing) are:

• In case the U.S. or other countries in the NSG renege on fuel supply assurances for imported reactors, will we have the ability to withdraw these reactors from IAEA safeguards?
• If U.S./NSG countries renege on fuel supply assurances, can we withdraw our indigenous civilian reactors from IAEA Safeguards?
• If we have to bring nuclear fuel from the non-safeguarded part of our nuclear programme for these reactors in case of fuel supply assurances not being fulfilled, will we have the ability to take it back again?
• What are the corrective steps that India can take if fuel supplies are interrupted by the U.S./NSG countries?
• What are the conditions that India will have to fulfill if the corrective steps are to be put into operation?

Other questions that needs to be known are:

• What if India for some reason breaks the agreement?
• 123 agreement will be withdrawn and the favors could be demanded to be returned back. Can India return the fuel and technology acquired until then? If the agreement fails, can it sustain the installations built purely depending on the IAEA supplies?


• Is this agreement a dolled-up version of NPT which India has consistently refused to sign since the 70s?
• By going for this is India about to hand over the control of its deterance to the west?
• With China being a part of the NSG and Pakistan a close ally of US, will this be a disaster?
  
  There is a clause in the agreement:

'An essential basis of India's concurrence to accept Agency safeguards under an India-specific safeguards agreement is the conclusion of international cooperation arrangements creating the necessary conditions for India to obtain access to the international fuel market, including reliable, uninterrupted and continuous access to fuel supplies from companies in several nations, as well as support for an Indian effort to develop a strategic reserve of nuclear fuel to guard against any disruption of supply over the lifetime of India's reactors.'

• In the absence of these 'international cooperation arrangements', isn't the India-specific IAEA Safeguards agreement itself legally invalid?
• Wouldn't to vote on a nuclear deal without the above two crucial documents (the Additional Protocol and international cooperation agreements with key NSG members) be a charade?

Finally, Is it all worth the trouble?

There are many argument and counter-arguments about the effectiveness of nuclear energy. There are reports that shows that the number of nuclear power plant orders and proposals have dwindled. The majority of installations was between 60s and the 80s. Even US has not built a reactor in the recent past.

The environmental hazard and risk of human life is too high than any other option. Can India stand a Chernobyl?



Economics:


Nuclear power currently accounts for 3.10% of our total energy output. If the 123 Agreement is signed, that figure will crawl up to 6% (around 16,000 mw) by 2020. (Remember: over 25% of India's power output is lost in transmission and distribution). In return for the miniscule accretion of 2.9% to India's total energy output over 12 years, is the country about to surrender its independent nuclear deterrent?


In particular the World Bank states:
"Bank lending for the energy sector requires a review of sector investments, institutions and policies. Nuclear plants in the power sector would not be economic; they are large white elephants".

The Asian Development Bank as a policy does not finance Nuclear power projects because of the political and safety risks involved.



Safety:




The problems of reactor safety are three fold:

Reactors approaching the end of their design lives are a recognised hazard which is not being addressed.
The poor safety management appears to be endemic in some national industries and an ongoing problem.
The safety of current and future reactor designs cannot be demonstrated to the necessary degree given the serious consequences of a nuclear accident.

• Can India protect its installations from the constant and growing terrorist activities?
• Would more nuclear reactors mean more risk to human life in case of an accident given the population density of India which is very high compared to other nuclear nations?
  
• Have we done all the home-work ?
• Has Dr.Manmohan Singh and his coalition done all the home-work and research before passing the bill?

I personally feel that it would be useful to have more nuclear power plants but safety is the biggest concern.

If the government goes down fighting then the failure will be seen as one of the weaknesses of a coalition government whereas if the government gains majority and signs a deal which if is a sugar coated trap. The government will be remembered forever for the wrong reasons.


It is not at all an easy job but it is a responsibilty to be done well by whoever reached the seat by all means.

Eunuchs/transgenders - is it time to think about them?

'They say they cannot reproduce then how is their population growing?'

This is a nasty joke I saw in a TV show. Though nasty, it made me think for a while. Aren't they being discussed more nowadays? Aren't they spotted more in many places?

Most of us know them as people looking like men dressed in women's clothes who go around crowded streets demanding money. In some places they are hired to visit weddings and naming ceremonies of babies believing that their blessings brings good luck.

Generally, they are people who due to harmonal imbalance find it very difficult to know their sexual identity. When their physical appearance starts showing up they are chased away from home to avoid emarassment or run aways.

Looking back, world history has many transgender characters playing important roles in different civilizations like chinese, european and Indian. They were generally regarded as loyal and honest people because they cannot have biological heirs. Due to this they will not be impartial and greedy to plan to have a dynastic rule. They occupied posts close to the throne as ministers, doctors and personal assistants of the king and queens.

Is it time for us to give a serious thought on how to help this group?

We must admit that they are looked down in the society and denied (unofficially) equal opportunity in education and employment. But for a few exceptions who struggle against odds to live a dignified life, many live on prostitution and beggary. There are a few groups that fights for reservation in parliament. Ridiculous, they need help to first support themselves without begging and educate themselves which is when they will have a chance to be compared with the rest or understand if someone is using them.

Education: As we know, they are groups of adults (which ever gender it may be). So it begs better education for grown-ups which is neither 'education for the aged' nor primary (kids) school and it is difficult to put them in regular schools for obvious reasons. The challenge is, even for such good reasons if they are isolated for their improvement we will see politicians and activists mushrooming, even some of us here will open discussion threads saying it is discrimination, its a legacy of untouchability, etc, etc,...

Employment: Police force is a good suggestion. Why not defence and police force?
I agree that something needs to be done but I have a feeling that they have become lazy. When they could earn well for 2 claps why would they think of working hard. I am against beggars (young healthy ones) and this is nothing different. I've seen them being given Rs.5 for 2 claps in the signals, anything less they throw it on you. I know many of these groups live in good apartments in pretty good localities.
When migrant labourers from Bihar and orissa walk kilometers on the ring roads to do construction work every day they(Eunuchs)dress-up and run shifts to stand in the traffic signals and pool the collection to have a comfortable life.

Attempting a little calculation:
Assume Rs.5 for a vehicle, on an average say 5 vehicles per stop => 5*5= Rs.25 every 10 mins. Assume 10 of them per signal=> 25*10=Rs.250 per 10 mins => Rs.1500 per hour per batch. Assume one batch does a 4 hr shift per day=> 4*1500 => Rs.6,000 per batch per day. Assume 5 days per week considering traffic variations => 30,000 per week => 1,20,000 per 10 people per month => 12,000 monthly per head tax-free.

Reservation:We misused it earlier. Reservation is not the only way to bring equality. You cannot slow down the leaders for the trailers to catch-up. You must train and strengthen the weak ones to catch-up and beat them. This is the mistake happening now in the country.
Reservation with an expiry date is another option. Our reservation system or be it any other policy is brought in without dead lines so no one bothers to set targets on what is to be achieved by when, it's taken for granted.

I agree transgenders need help for better living and earning respect but not by reservation as we know it today.

New Year - 2008

I wish my fellow NETizens a great new year.

I have resumed writing after 4 months. This is the time it takes for one to get an internet connection done in the Silicon valley of India. I realized that the so called 'city limits' does not mean the same for infrastructue yet. I had to deal with the state owned service provider (BSNL) pulling strings in vain just to realize that it would take more than 3 months to get a telephone cable laid in my street though they have about 100 applicants waiting in the same locality. Then I tried our modern private providers, Airtel, Reliance, et al and the responses were no different. At last, one of them was able to provide a wireless connection finally as I am in the 'city limits' ;)

India vs India

I couldn't think of any other title when I write about the war between the cricket leagues(Indian Cricket League-ICL and Professional Cricket League-PCL) being formed in India and they cannot have better leaders to lead the battle (Kapil Dev and Sunil Gavaskar). This will be interesting to watch than any of the matches played by the team.

I am happy about the formation of these:

• The false association of patriotism with the game will fade away and hopefully it will be seen as just a game. It will set the importance of the game's position amongs other games right.It is sad that now the common man, next to the Indian Army, considers the Indian cricket team as the pride of the nation and as the ones who hold the Indian flag high.
  
• This will bring to light more talents and stars which earlier used to fade out before being noticed
  
• Break the monopolistic behaviour of the Indian Cricket Board (BCCI)
  
• Bring more opportunities to retired cricketers and reduce the involvement of people who are miles away from the game.
  
• Make the cricketers millionaires to billionaires
  
• Popularize 20/20 form of the game and thus saving a lot of viewers time that is SPENT in watching either 8 hours or 40 hours versions of the game.
  
• Roll-in MORE money into the game. In fact, the whole chain of events is all nothing but a media-war. The root-cause lies in the tussle of broadcast rights between Zee network and BCCI.

And every coin has a flip side. There could be a few risks:

• Our dear politicians could pounce on the opportunity and completely colour the field with party poilitics
  
• Betting and match-fixing could increase as more money is involved
  
• Cricketers could easily be manipulated to speak and work against the interest of the game
  
• Use of performance enhancing drugs could creep in to meet the competiotion
  

Indian cricket is getting more interesting off the field than on the field which in the past few years is nothing unusual.

(In)tolerance of expression

The physical attack on Taslima Nasreen in Hyderabad made me think about the deteriorating tolerance amongst Indians for the expression of others. Or is it so...? Let me consider a small list of recent incidents :

• Andhra MLAs, 20 MIM(Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen)activists manhandle Taslima Nasreen.


• Neeraj Jain of VHP (Vishwa Hindu Parishad), barged into the fine arts department of Vadodara's Maharaja Sayajirao University, vandalised paintings that weren't even up for public exhibition but meant for internal assessment.


• M F Husain's gallery in Ahmedabad was vandalised by the VHP and Bajrang Dal, part of a chain of events that forced one of India's greatest living artists to live abroad in exile.


• Information and broadcasting ministry issues periodic bans on TV channels like AXN and FTV.

Can you spot one common thing in all the above incidents which I've picked at random at different points in time? Each of these news item is attached to some political faction. We don't see any news either in television or the dailies where the general public has initiated a protest against some form of art. This is truly encouraging.
We know that all (no exceptions here) political parties and extremists group live on and wait for such opportunities to gain popularity. The sincerity of these protests are understood by us without any specific mention. Truly, these are entertainment and mere entertainment to me a momentary highlight on these groups and we forget them soon.

On the other side, I have seen that these incidents has benefited the victims on a long term. Salmaan Rushdie, Taslima Nasreen, MF Hussein, Mallika Sherawat and FTV just to quote a few would have been less popular without such incidents in their career.

Vishy - The unsung Indian emperor of the 8 X 8 matrix

For 20 years the growth curve is upwards, no points to guess that it's not about the performance of the Indian cricket team. Oh! it could be true for the growth of the assets of the cricketers but I am talking about the performance of Viswanathan Anand the super achiever who has silently conquered the world of chess. As I write this blog, he is holding the FIDE (World Chess Federation) Rank#1.

How many of his wins have appeared on the front page of the Indian dailies? How many of the Indian cricket losses have not appeared on the front pages?Of course, I understand that there is a difference between a team game and an individual's brilliance. We must accept the fact that the cricket TEAM is also a group of brilliant individuals who fail to work together.

I remember it (the news snippets) so well like yesterday when he landed in India after becoming the World Champion, it was just about 50 people in the airport. About a couple of dozens cheering him the next day or when there was a celebration procession in Chennai with him in an open horse drawn charriot. I don't have to remind anyone of the crowd and security that throngs cricketers whether they win or loose.

I would like to highlight A FEW of his achievements which just went past in time even without many of us even realizing:

• 1984-85 - Asian Junior (under 19) Championships - Earned the title of International Master at 15, the youngest Asian to achieve this distinction



• 1987 - World Junior Chess Championship - First Asian to win the World Junior Title



• 1987- Became India’s first Grandmaster and the Youngest Grandmaster in the World at that time



• 1989 - 4th International Games Festival, France (Veterans vs. Youth Tournament) - A special triumph in beating 2 former World Champions, Mikhail Tal and Boris Spassky



• 1990 - Manila Chess Interzonal, Manila - Placed 3rd and became 1st Indian to qualify for Candidates Matches leading up to the World Championships



• 1991 - Beat Alexey Dreev to be the first Asian to qualify for the Quarter Finals of the World Championship



• 1992 - Alekhine Memorial (Category 18), Moscow - Won the tournament ahead of Karpov. Attained a 2700 rating, only the 8th person ever to do so in the World



• 1994 - Melody Amber Tournament, Monaco - Won ahead of stalwarts like Karpov, Kramnik, Ivanchuk



• 1994 - PCA Grand Prix, Moscow - Won ahead of Kasparov



• 1995 - World Championship, World Trade Center, New York - Lost the match after a see-saw 3rd week. First Asian to play the World Championship. Attained the World No. 2 position in the PCA Ranking list



• 1996 - Credit Swiss Rapid Chess Grand Prix, Geneva - Beat World Champion Garry Kasparov in the final.



• 1997 - 6th Melody Amber Tournament, Monaco - Finished overall first, and individually first in blindfold and rapid. . The first player in the history of the tournament to do so.



• 1997 - Exhibition against 6 computers at the Aegon Man Vs Computers chess event. - Won 4-2 - One of the few players to play 6 computers simultaneously and win.



• 1998 - Torneo International De Ajedrez, Linares - Won the strongest tournament ever, in the history of chess.



• 1998 - Viswanathan Anand wins the Chess 'Oscar' for 1997 !



• 1998 - "Siemens Nixdorf Duell",Frankfurt - Won the strongest rapid tournament of all time



• 1999 - Anand wins the coveted Chess Oscar for the second straight year!



• 2000 - FIDE World Championships, Teheran and New Delhi - Beat Alexei Shirov in the Final (3.5 - 0.5) to add the Crown Jewel to a glittering career and ascend the very pinnacle of game.



• 2003 - 12th Amber Chess Tournament, Monte Carlo - Became the first player ever, to win 3 unshared titles beating Kramnik's record of 2 unshared and 2 shared titles.



• 2004 - Mainz Chess Classic, Mainz - Won his 2 major titles on successive Sundays by beating Alexei Shirov 4.5 - 2.5, to don the Black Jacket for the 4th straight year. Anand has now been Champion at Mainz an amazing 7 times in total.



• 2005 - Mainz Chess Classic, Mainz - Took the title for the 5th year in a row, by beating Alexander Grischuk 5-2 in the Final, in an utterly dominant and professional display



• 2006 - Corus Chess Tournament, Wijk Aan Zee - Made history by becoming the only player ever to win this tournament a record 5 times! Anand beat Boris Gelfand in his final round game to share top honours with Veselin Topalov. Anand was however awarded the trophy for having won more games with the black pieces. This win also gave Anand a vital 13 ELO points taking his ELO rating to 2805, thereby crossing the magic 2800 ELO point marker, a summit achieved before by only Kasparov, Kramnik and Topalov



• 2006 - Grenkeleasing World Rapid Championship, Mainz Chess Classic, Mainz - Beat Radjabov twice on the final day to win his 6th Title in a row at Mainz, his 7th in succession and his 9th Classic win overall, setting a record that is unlikely to be surpassed.



• 2006 - Mikhail Tal Memorial Blitz Tournament, Moscow - Anand scored a whopping 23 points out of a possible 34 and won 11 out of 17 mini-matches to claim the strongest Blitz tournament in the history of the game, beating his nearest rival, Levon Aronian of Armenia by a comprehensive 2 point margin.



• 2007 - Morelia-Linares Super Grandmaster Chess Tournament, Linares - Took and early lead and hung onto it right upto a final draw with Vassily Ivanchuk, to not only take the Title at Linares for the first time since 1998 but also to take the FIDE World No.1 Ranking for the very first time ever!

While the media was busy chasing the money machines Indian Government did recognized his mastery early and did not miss to honour him.

• Arjuna award for Outstanding Indian Sportsman in Chess in 1985



• Padma Shri in 1987



• The inaugural Rajiv Gandhi Khel Ratna Award, India's highest sporting honour in the year 1991-1992.



• Padma Bhushan in 2000

Vishy is a great example of silent success, a person who believes in performance and not publicity. I am sure his records will set the bar high for the game and also inspire the younger generations. His story is of a normal Indian middle class school kid achieving the sky just through hard work, parental support and encouragement of close ones.

Looks like he is just in the middle of his career and will not stop until he tests the limits of limits.

Good Luck Vishy !!

NO VOTE for THE TAJ

Wah Taj...

No wonder it's a wonder. No one can dispute the fact that its a moon on earth...

I am getting poetical, why not, the very sight of this marvel can turn a dud like me to Wordsworth. I had visited the Taj a couple of years back, a dream I had since childhood.

By now, you must be wondering why I titled this post as 'NO VOTE...' ? It's just to make sure that I have the Taj to visit after a few decades too, to make sure that we have the Taj for coming generations too to admire.

We have seen terrorist threats to the Taj in the recent past and earlier too. The threats are because its a world wonder. A sore in the eye of destructive minds. The moment it enters the list of 7 wonders, the threat will increase. Am I scared of terrorists, no, I am scared of losing the fragile beauty. No technology can re-construct it. As Navjot Sidhu would say, 'It's better to prepare and prevent than repair and repent'.

This is just one of the reasons, the second is because I think we(Indians) are not as keen and serious in taking care of the monument as much as we are keen on winning the race to enter into the top-7 wonders. Yamuna on which's banks the Taj glows is now almost an industrial drainage. Not many know how important the health of the river is for the survival of Taj Mahal not aesthetically but scientifically. There are some architectural reasons behind it. I have seen permanent inscriptions by our modern Shah Jahans who visit the Taj expressing their love on the floor/walls (I am sure and hope long back and not anymore) of Taj Mahal.

Finally, VOTE, I think we must learn to vote right at the right moment to the right people than just participate and jump into the bandwagon of 'yes' votes. I am pointing to the current government that is ruling the state of Uttar Pradesh where Taj Mahal is. The CM, Mayawati was accused and almost proved guilty on the Rs.175 crore Taj corridor case, which like all other high profile accusations died a natural death.

All these made me decide not to vote to make our beloved Taj as one of the 7 wonders.

Let us all make sure we preserve and protect it so that the world for a long time to come have an opportunity to say......वाह ताज (wah Taj!)....